the Blog Papers of Dr. Michael Sakbani; Economics, Finance and Politics

Michael Sakbani, Ph.D., is a former professor of Economics and Finance at the Geneva campus of Webster and Thunderbird. He is a senior international consultant to the UN system, European Union and Swiss banks. His career began at the State university of NY at Stoney Brook, then the Federal Reserve Bank of New York followed by UNCTAD where he was Director of the divisions of Economic Cooperation, Poverty Alleviation, and Special Programs. Now, Michael has published over 140 professional papers.

Tuesday, October 01, 2024

Nasreullah; the Fall of a Terrorist Who Has Lost His Raisonne D`etre

Friday, August 16, 2024

The State of the US `Presidential Race, an Essay

the Blog Papers of Dr. Michael Sakbani; Economics, Finance and Politics.

Michael Sakbani, Ph.D., is a former professor of Economics and Finance at the Geneva campus of Webster and Thunderbird. He is a senior international consultant to the UN system, European Union and Swiss banks. His career began at the State university of NY at Stoney Brook, then the Federal Reserve Bank of New York followed by UNCTAD where he was Director of the divisions of Economic Cooperation, Poverty Alleviation, and Special Programs. Michael Sakbani has published over 140 professional papers. and coauthored six books. in 2020,2021and 2023the "inteloigent Economist electzed michael.sakbani@blogspot .com as one of the top 100 blogs in trhe world.

Contributors • michel sakbani • Dr. Michael Sakbani •

The State of the US`Presidential Race; an Essay

Dr. Michael Sakbani

It is now a month since President Biden abandoned his bid for re-election. It feels like six months, for the race has dramatically shifted. Over the past 8 months, it has become apparent that President Biden is not in a physical shape to carry on for 4 more years. The fellow has some neuro -problems, which to his bad luck, come with age. Age and mother- nature simply cannot be resisted. After the debate, it became clear that he is not a viable candidate. Mr. Biden was trailing Trump in the crucial 8 deciding states and further, in 9 more states, which are traditionally democratic, he was either tied or behind Trump. It was a hopeless race as far as 85 percent of the Democrats were concerned.

When Trump was wounded in the Republican Convention, his raised -fist -photo was the victory emblem etched in every democrat`s thought. The Democratic Party, which is really a collection of elements often undisciplined, was facing disaster in the Presidentioal and in the Congressional and the states`races. This is when the capable politician Nancy Pelosi, the two Congressional leaders, and behind the scenes, President Obama, stepped in to convince Biden that he cannot win. Biden finally faced the data and in anger folded by grace, he decided to abandon.

There was no time in late July for an open convention. After Biden endorsed Harris, the potential contenders, all endorsed her. In effect, she becames the proclaimed candidate. She was indeed an accidental choice, a lucky politician at the right time and place.

So, who is Harris, the official Democrat candidate now?

The only clear record we have is her attorney generalship of California. In the US`Senate, she was a tough interrogator but not an accomplished US `senator. In her Presidential bid in 2020, she ran with her sister a failed and confused campaigne. In the Vice Presidency, she was a loyal untested. persona. This unknown, when she had the role to play, turned out to be incredibly energetic, a good speaker and a successful fund - raiser. So far, she has been flawless. She chose a complementary VP who balances her Californian background, and is a white Santa Claus from the Midwest with no further ambitions. She brought joy and enthusiasm to the scene. The question is could she beat Trump?

So far, she has succeeded in energizing the dispirited Democrats. Her gains in the polls, however, are not from convincing independents but from solidifying the Democratic base. The whole question is whether she can enlarge her support to include independents in the battle-ground states. Trump has a solid low floor of 43 percent of the likely voters but a high of only 47 percent. Historical data show that the democrats must go somewhere around 52 percent in the national vote if they were to win the Electoral College. For this to happen, she must present a program of a change and hope to convince the independents and the young thereby enlarging her appeal. The Democrats always win when they present a change: FDR, Kennedy, Bill Clinton and, Obama.

The polls in the battle- ground states, except Nevada and Georgia, are now showing her with 1-3 points lead. But her lead is within the statistical sample-error. Nevertheless, that is a vast improvement over Biden who was behind by three points in Pennsylvania, in Michigan and in Wisconsin, and much more behind in the other four states. She has reversed the other threatened states and given the party a hope to win Congressional and downstate races. This is a true achievement. If she can win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, she would clinch the 270 Electoral votes.

What is her catalog of policies to convince voters? More precisely, how can she, the incumbent VP, differentiate herself from the unpopular Biden and claim she is a candidate of change. There are several issues in my opinion on swhich she has to show her own voice.

The Economy
Issue number one is the economy. Biden has a solid economic record. He has created 16 million jobs in three years. He brought down the inflation rate from 9.5 percent to 3 percent. He invested in climate the bigest sum in history. He invested billions in infrastructur, the semi conductors chips, and brought back 800,000 manufacturing jobs. However, the state of the economy has not hit the kitchen-table issue of the level of the cost- of -living. High cost of living has hit all American budgets. Harris must explain the difference between inflation and the level of the cost of living. She has to bare-out where the rise of the cost of living is coming from and what she can do about it.

Several sources, not all of which anyAdministration can control, are at play. The war in Ukraine which pulled up the prices of grains, oil and fertilizers. Ukraine and Russia account for 31 percent of the world imports in these staples. Corporate gouging as attested by the record profits of food monopolies is another source. Since COVID 19, the economy is still affected by the supply-chain problem. And this problem is now aggravated by the Houti`s armed actions in the Red Sea.

The federal Reserve hiked the interest rate by 500 basis-points to stop inflation. Furthermore, the cost of child care balooned after the expiry of the child-support act. All of these varied factors converged on the level of the cost of living.

There are three other sources that are endogenous economic policy factors. Both the Trump and the Biden administrations committed economic -policy errors. Trump cut the tax rates on business and the wealthy, which produced no down-trickling effect on investment; the resultant billions of tax-savings largely went into wealth accumulatiomn and buying own- equities. Biden injected billions of Government spending into the economy, but could not finance that by his proposed tax increases due to Congressional opposition. In other words, the two Administrations for different reasons, indulged in massive, non- financed deficit spending injecting billions into circulation.

Another cost of living issue is the unaffordability of housing. This is due to two factors: the low supply of new housing and the high cost of mortgage. While it is the Federal Reserve that caused the high mortgahge rates, it is the excess demand for housing in the cyclically depressed construction industry that has caused the astronomically hgigh prices of housing.

what can Harris do?

She can suggest important government participation with the construction industry in building millions of new houses. She can give tax credit for new house owners and for new house construction.

The border

The second issue is the border. Biden has been permissive on the border. She should outline a tough program to deal with asylum seekers and to reform the immigration system. Trump sabotaged the bi-partisan bil on the border, because he wanted to use the issue against the Democrates. a good suggestion is to reintroduce the bill after she wins. She has expressed herself in favor of that. In this regard, it should be observed that the US in 2024 is not in the same situation as it was in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Immigration ought to be related to the economic social, and cultural needs and imperatives. Otherwise, it will face populous resistance.

The war in Gaza

The third issue is Biden`s Zionist stand on Israel. She has problems there, she is married to an Israel supporter, and is dependent on Jewish money. She can camoflged her bias by pushing for a ceasefire and promising a modicum of US toughness on Israel. The US laws are clear that conditions must be attached to the use of US weapons and aid. Only Israerl has been left of the hook on that. It is a common belief that Israel security is bound up with the Palestinians` security. Thus, advocating seriously a two state-solution is a hard-headed position supported by many Israelis. And that is an issue -celebre for states like Michigan and Georgia , as well as for the youth votes.

It is obvioujs trhat Biden`s policies about Israel have produced no rersults.it is high time to change them.

The basket of false Republican assertions

The fourth issue is a basket of false Trump assertions. She should hit him on crime, which was higher during his term. The Republicans in so many states have been against voting rights and against any sensible gun.controls. Trump himself has expressed nefast views on Democracy and the US` constitution. He had received authoritarians like the Hungarian primer minister in his own home, and he counts Sissi of Egypt, Putin of Russia,and Polsinaro of Brazil among his friends.

A common false claim is that the US had better economic situation under Trump, and thus, he had good economic opolicy record. Biden received from Trump a US`econmy with the higest rate of unemployment since the Great Depression. Investment and productivity were in deep decline. Many induistries were on the verge of collaps. The US balance of trade and services was much more in deficit than when Trump came to power. His promises of bringing back manufacturing jobs were not proven by actual data.

Other Issues

VP Harris has championed women issues. She should continue her advocasy of women control over their bodies and Trump`s role in the Supreme Court`s reversing of Roe.v.Wade. Today, in 26 states, women are not allowed in any meanigful way to control their bodies. Trump is responsible for appointing 3 USSC justices that reversed the law of the land.

She has now the edge in women voting and some but not all, of the youth voting and will be overwhelming in minority votes. She should think of the vote of white males on these issues and tempt to narrow the edge of Trump by assuring the reasonable centrists. If she is a strong -headed politician, she should show that she is not Biden on most of these issues. Will she, the incumbent VP, be skilled enough to find her own voice, and in the process, convince the voters that she is a candidate for the future?

One of the key findings of the 2020 voting was that 50 percent of the youth did vote, and the majority went to Biden. In the present campaign, there are 5 million more young new potential voters, the majority of whom can be moved towards the Democrats. In this respect, the Dewmocrats seem to have neglected the male side of the young voters, a group that has problems not addressed by both parties. But the young are suspect; they might not vote. If Harris can incentify them to vote, that would give the Democrats an unequivocal win.

Foreign Policy Issues

Foreign issues do not usually figure among the important election issues in the US. But Harris can expose the fantasy falsehoods uttered by Trump on ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Trump has misguided transactional views on NATO and on the usefulness of allies. Without allies, the US is only 23 percent of world economy, while with allies the west approaches 60 percent of the world economy.

Isolationist pèolicies are not in the interest of the US. Furthermore, the US financial position and the US`dollar position in particular, will be adversly affected by such policies.

If I were to bet, I would say it is now becoming more an election for Harris to lose than for Trump to lose. Can she sustain her present momentum to win? Can she convince the voters that she is a candidate for the future?

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Hamas and Israel; an Essay on Moral Clarity

Dr. Michael Sakbani

Date: 14 March 2024 at 11:50:02 CET

I know that many people all around the world are asking for moral clarity on the Gaza war. This happens in the midst of a genocidal war by Israel, launched in response to an abhorrent terrorist attack by Hamas. So, the call for moral clarity is a worthy and timely endeavor.

Hillary Clinton is quoted as saying that Hamas had broken a ceasefire that was in effect. They did start this war, she said. Yes, Hamas indeed started this war not out of a ceasefire but out of an open air prison for the last 17 years. Hamas has controlled this prison camp almost on behalf of Israel. We know now that Netanyahu and Israeli governments have been complicit in allowing the financing of Hamas on the expediency of dividing the Palestinians so that the two -state solution would be scuttled.

How can one say Hamas has been in control in Gaza on behalf of Israel, if Hamas wants to replace Israel with an Islamic state that recognizes no validity of the others. One can well assert that in view of the successive Israeli governments policies to boost Hamas at the expense of the Palestinian Athority. Hamas is also a flip side of the advocates of greater Israel; the Charter of the Likude Party of Mr. Netanyahu and the advocacies of the messianic Jews in his government gives only the Jewish people the right of self-determination in "the land between the river and the sea". After all, God, when he was in real-estate, gave the land to the Jews from the river to the sea!!! Mr. Netanyahu and his likes of extremists want to get rid of Palestinian and have Israel a home for only the Jewish people, the only Jewish state as many say. But Israel was not created on a land without people for a people without land, as the Zionists repeatedly said. It was a land inhabited by 2.5 million Palestinians who hailed from ancestors who have lived there for thousands of years. These were the people from whom Jesus came and the people who became Christians and later on Muslims. In other words, the Hebrews who lived in that land 3000 years ago are the ancestors of the Palestinians and not of the Jews of the Jewish immigrants who came to Palestine in the 20th century. These Immigrants are people who converted to Judaism in various places outside the historical "Holy Land".

Let there be moral clarity, Israel Zionism is settlers colonialism to solve the European anti-Semitism at the expense of the Palestinians. The Jewish immigrants in the late nineteenth century and the Twentieth century were refugees from the Tsarist Russian pogroms, and in the interwar period, from German Nazi and Eastern European prosecutions. When WW1 ended with the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, the British and French colonialists had the opportunity to divide among themselves the Ottoman territory and solve their Jewish problem by planting the Jewish refugees in Palestine, ignoring fully the indigenous inhabitants. In the San Remo Conference they convened on Palestine, the Palestinians were not even invited. So, they and the Zionists conspired to build a Jewish nationalist state in the European style at the expense of underdeveloped and weak indigenous population. Thus, from the vantage point of Palestinians, the Zionist project was an imperial colonial project.

In 1917, when the British occupied Palestine, there were less than 35,000 Jews in Palestine. And when the UN declared its division plan In 1947, the official British records show that Jews owned only 6.75 percent of historical Palestine and numbered about 800,000. True, the Arab states and the Palestinians did not accept the UN division plan and lost the subsequent war, a war they were not serious about and in which they were out manned two to one and out fought by the small Jewish population. However, the UN decision was a proposal to be put to referendum. The Zionist Leaders did not want to have the referendum, since the Arabs were in the majority. So, Ben-Gurion declared unilaterally the establishment of Israel.

How one cannot understand the injustice committed by the US and the European powers that dominated the UN. at the time. They decreed that the 800,000 Jews who gathered in Palestine fleeing Europe and the holocaust be given 52 percent of the land, while the 2.5 million Palestinians who lived there should get 48 percent. That is what happened; people who fled European prosecution were given the means and the right to settle a land on the expense of its indigenous inhabitants. This is the injustice of 76 years ago.

And here we come to another moral clarity: what has Israel done after 1967 when it had occupied practically all of historical Palestine. Instead of acknowledging what has happened, and the price paid by the Palestinians, Israeli Zionist leadership sought to occupy the Palestinians `land and keep them under conditions which will force them to immigrate. The catalog of discrimination and ill treatments includes confiscating their land; armed settlers’ aggression; restrictions on movements by check points all over (492 on October 7th); administrative detention of tens of thousands without trials; denial of equal human rights; denial of self-determination. All measures designed to make their lives impossible so that they immigrate. Ariel Sharon said it best: "it is difficult to be a Palestinian"

How has Israel lived comfortably in this precarious situation surrounded by hatred. This is where the US comes into the picture: by giving Israel more than $250 billion of official and tax-exempt private aid since 1967; by using its veto in the UNSC 46 times out of a total of 87 since 1945 to protect Israel; by arming Israel with the most advanced arms; by sharing with Israel military technology, intelligence information and by covering it politically in all international fora. This is why there is no Palestinian issue in domestic Israeli politics. The war camp has had no fear and no security anxiety since Uncle Sam is here. Regrettably, Hillary Clinton seems to have no moral clarity, she has the myopia of the uninformed.

How can reasonable people solve this 100 year war?

The first thing is to recognize that regardless of historical justice, there are two peoples on the same land who have to be protected and both deserve peace, security and dignity. While Zionism is settlers ‘colonialism implanted by colonial powers, Israelis have nowhere to go. On the other side, the Palestinians are also going nowhere. There are basically two solutions: either one democratic state or two -state solution. The first one would do away with a state for the Jews and would usher a binational solution on the basis of one person one vote and equality under the law. It is the easier solution to implement. But this can only happen if Israel casts off Zionism. The chance of that is slim indeed.

The other solution is becoming more difficult by the day. However, it is the only pragmatic solution: a two-state solution on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital. To be sure, the border can be negotiated, but only for slight and necessary modifications. (see the author`s paper “the Horror in Gaza & Israel; a Tragedy Pretold”, published in his blog, which outlines in detail the two-state solution).

In all likelihood, the two - state solution has to be imposed internationally, for Israel still lives with the illusion that it can have what it wants and that the Palestinians are a demographic inconvenience of an inferior and violent people, a typical dehumanization of "the other". In this respect, the US has to stop being Israel lawyer and sponsor and to impose, using its enormous leverage, this solution on Israel. The acid test is whether the US stops talking and starts acting by changing its policies. If the Israelis see that nobody will indulge their ambitions, there will be enough reasonable people among them to form a peace camp. If President Biden, a self-proclaimed Zionist, wants the security of Israel, he should give the Palestinians the right to self-determination in a viable state of their own and change his policies. This is, in my opinion, what any friend of Israel should support.

A final moral clarity: Mr. Netanyahu and most Israelis lament the Palestinians’ hatred of Israel, and the things they teach to their children in the schools. But most Palestinians do not hate the Jews for who they are, but for what Jewish Israel has and is doing to them. If Mr. Netanyahu cares about truth and facts in school curricula, he should first straighten out the falsehoods taught to Israeli children in Hebrew schools about Zionism, the creation of Israel and the Palestinian Arabs.

Geneva March 12, 2024.

Friday, November 17, 2023

The Horrors of Gaza and Israel; A Tragedy Pre-Told

The Blog Papers of Dr. Michael Sakbani; Economics, Finance and Politics

Michael Sakbani, Ph.D., is a former professor of Economics and Finance at the Geneva campuses of Webster and Thunderbird. He is a senior international consultant to the UN system, European Union and Swiss banks. His career began at the State university of NY at Stoney Brook, then the Federal Reserve Bank of New York followed by UNCTAD where he was Director of the divisions of Economic Cooperation, Poverty Alleviation, and Special Programs. Dr.Sakbani has published over 140 professional paper and coauthored 6 books.

in 2020,2021and 2023, the "Inteligent Economist" voted michaelsakbani. blogspot .com as one of the top 100 blogs in the world.Brill aynd Kudos distributes his papers to researc h instiutions throughout the world.

Contributors

The Horror of Gaza and Israel; A Tragedy Pre-Told

Dr. Michael Sakbani

Michael Sakbani, Ph.D. is a former professor of economics and Finance at the Geneva campuses of Webster-Europe and Thunderbird-Europe. He is a senior international consultant to the UN system, European Union and Swiss banks. His career began at the State university of NY at Stoney Brook, then the Federal Reserve Bank of New York followed by UNCTAD where he was Director of the divisions of Economic Cooperation, Poverty Alleviation, and Special Programs. Published over 140 professional papers and co-authored six books. The Intelligent Economist voted in 2020, 2021 and 2023 michaelsakbani.blogspot.com as one of the top hundred blogs in the world. Dr. Sakbani is a research contributor to Brill and Kudos who disseminates his publications to research institutions throughout the world.

Dr. Sakbani won numerous awards and prizes for scholarly distinction.

The Horror of Gaza and Israel; A Tragedy Pre-Told

Dr. Michael Sakbani

The events of October 7 th and subsequent events are shocking in their brutality and dehumanization. Both parties are guilty of war crimes and bestial behaviour : Hamas for what it did and the Israeli Government for its rruthless response and for the prosecution of Palestinians for deccades before the event. The relentless bombardment of Gaza inflicting collective punishment on the innocent civilian population with explicit expressed intention voiced out by top Israedli officials is nothing short of genecide. Mr. Netanyahu expressed his wish to exact a biblical vengeance in his first press reaction to Hamas` action. His Government cut off the supply of food, medicine, fuel, electricity and even water to the 2.3 million Gazans, an act of collective punishment and a crime of war.

The Israeli Army spokesmen have repeatedly stated that their action does not aim at the civilians and they are doing their best to avoid collateral damage. That is belied by the facts on the ground. In the event, the war minister said that the Israeli narmy has no restrictions on its operations in Gaza. The civilian casualties up till now are 10 times larger than the Israelis casualties. More than two thirds of the casualties are women, children and old people. At the rate of casualties so far, Israel is killing about 2000 perweek. A war that might lasst sevderal months, would be an unmitigated holocoust.

The UN Secretary General told Fareed Zakaria on CNN on 12 November that the UN had lost 100 members of its staff[i] [1]. The head of WHO said three days before that, that 120 health workers had been killed and a child is killed every 10 minutes These numbers speak for careless regard for the consequences of military actions and the absence of proportionality in Israel military response.

Hamas apparently came to the realization that the train of recognition and normalization with Israel had sped along among some Arab states and that the Palestinian question is absent in Israeli politics. Thus, it sought to re-put their quest on the agenda by their brutal act. Mr. Netanyahu`s policy of making peace with the Arab states without offering any solution to the Palestinian problem seemed to them as a liquidation of their cause.

Hamas`s October 7^th attack has also three other major consequences. First, it vitiated the omnipotence of Israel army and intelligence services and their deterrence reputation. Second, it stopped for some time the train of recognition and normalization of Saudi Arabia with Israel. Finally, it threw into sharp relief the dual character and functionality of Israel in the eyes of the West as a solution to the Jewish question on the expense of the Palestinians and as a military base for perpetuating the Western Imperialist control of the Middle East after their armies evacuated at the end of WWII. The almost involuntary pilgrimage of Western heads of government to Israel to support Mr. Netanyahu and the movements of their naval and military forces into the region shows the West in its imperialist garbs of the first half of the twentieth century. President Biden best expressed this functionalist character of Israel in the careless wording of his Open Ad article in the Washington Post “that Israel would have to be created if it did not exist”(Wahington Post) [2]

The United States and many of the Europeans officials have furnished striking examples of double standard and hypocrisy. The US is against occupation of Ukrainian land by Russia but for doing that by Israel, it is against changing borders by force but for that in the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, the US calls on Israel to respect humanitarian standards, but says nothing about the war crime of demanding of 1 million Palestinians to evacuate their homes within 24 hours.(Spain`s & Belgian foreign Ministers) [3]

Since December 2022, the right wing extremist government of Mr. Netanyahu has armed the settlers and encouraged their violence against Palestinian civilians with the tacit protection and complicity of the Israeli army, It has expanded and increased the number of settlements on their territory and gave the Palestinians, in the words of the Finance Minister, the choice of: leaving, dying or accepting subjugation to the Jewish state. To these messianic Jews, the Palestinians do not exist and the land was given to them by God!!! In the book of Jushua, the believers are comanded to anhjilate those on the land and replace them!!!. Besides all that, Mr. Netanyahu has the political principle of putting his personal interests above everything else to escape jail. And staying in power, guarantees his blocking the two state solution wich has lied at the heart of his convictions and is indeed the cause of the current events.

The continued occupation of Palestinian land for the last 56 years, the spread of Jewish settlers on Palestinian land confiscated by Israel with the protection and financing by the government, made normalcy simply impossible in the daily Palestinian life. Gazans have had to endure a total blockade of the strip for 17 years. The Palestinians of the West Bank have had to pass 492 check points, blocked roads and forbidden ones manned by trigger- happy young soldiers (ochpot.org)[4]. Palestinians cannot use roads exclusively built for the Israelis and collective punishment is their daily visitor ( Nathan Thrall)[5] . Since the beginning of 2023, the number of Palestinian killed by Israel is higher than the total of the previous three years. In the West Bank, Israel and the settlers have killed more than 180 Palestinians since the October 7 and put in jail more than 2000 (by Novenmber 12). When suffering and humiliation is a daily event, people get dehumanized in the eyes of thgeir tormentors and Isrtael`s reaction to the events of October 7 are a clear pèroof of that (6).

The USA`s Blind Support

This would not have been the case if the USA has not backed Israel unconditionally: militarily, financially and politically. For the last thirty years alone, the US has pumped into Israel $3.8 billion of official aid per year, plus $2 billion of tax exempt private aid every year and occasional supplementary aid in crisis. Israeli firms were let in on all American military research because they are allowed to bid on procurement for the US armed forces. In effect, this meant the development of the Israeli military industry on US financed and developed technology. In this conflict, the US has provided Israel intelligence and target information on daily basis and opened its arm stores to Israel. All of that has removed the incentives for peace in the Israeli politics. It permitted Israel to ignore international law and decisions, because of the USA `s backing.

President Biden position on the October 7^th events was emotional, lacking in statesmanship and politically unhelpful in placing rail-guards on Israeli vengeance. It produced the amazing comments by the President of Israel that “there are no innocent civilians in Gaza”, of the defence minister that” the Palestinians are human animals and we `ll act accordingly”, and the minister of heritage that “Israel should drop a nuclear bomb on Gaza”. These raw and primitive emotions are the stuff of fanaticism of a state that feels it is beyond reach and exempt of punishment.

Hamas As a Political Idea

The question arises why has Hamas done what it has with support from many Palestinians; recent polls show considerable popular support for Hamas, especially in the West-Bank. Is it barbarity and animalistic instincts as many Israeli leaders have said reflecting the prevailing views of the Palestionians in the Israeli public opinion as subhumans, or are there daily suffering inflicted upon Palestinians by Israel, magnified by the incredible injustice felt every day of their diminished lives that renders them violent with no hope of a different future( David Schulman )[7].

Max Weber said that a nation is a collective sentiment that finds expression in a national state. Zionism has produced such a collective sentiment among the prosecuted Jews of Europe. Hertzel`s Zionist slogan” a land without people to a people without land”, while false in reality as his diary reveals, has laid at the heart of Zionism. Ethnic cleansing was one of the first acts of the Israeli state (note on ethnic cleansing )[8]. Extremists still think that Gaza and West Bank Palestinians can be forced outside to Jordan and Egypt to clear the land of non Jews ; many Israeli politicians expressed this Zionist desire before and during this crisis. And that is a manifest charecteristioc of Zionist setllers colonialism.

The opposite sentiment of the Palestinians is to have a state on the land they have lived upon for 3000 years (Wikipedia, November 2023)[9]. The guilty Europeans wanted to wash out their crimes and antisemitism at the expense of the Palestinians who have done no harm to the Jews but oppose exclusivist Zionism.

When two peoples refuse to coexist together, and one of them is stronger, better supported and more developed than the other, the disequilibrium brings out the expediency of aggression by one and suppressed reaction by the other. As violence flares up, the stronger feels entitled that its actions should be accepted and the weaker feels that might is making right in its world. This produces the situation where the aggressor feels a narcissistic victimhood if the other does not see things its way. The line from that to the holocaust etched deep in the Jewish soul, becomes straight regardless of the identity of the other side. Being a victim becomes an obssession that has produced an interaction of violence in Palestine which both sides have sadly justified.

The Arab States` Lack of Seriousness

The Arab states have time and again made the wrong political decisions on Palestine. Their rejection of the UN division plan in 1947, which gave the Palestinians 48 % of historical Palestine was an emotional response to a perceived injustice of giving ¾ of the population less than half of the land. However, this lacked a sober assessment of their military and diplomatic capacities. After their defeat, they ended up with only 22.7 percent of the land (note on Arab leaders seriousness ) [10]. Thereafter, the Palestinian problem became a central justification for military dictatorships in so many Arab adjacent states.

Subsequently, every time the Arabs rejected an offer, they accepted it later. This implanted in Israel the firm belief that if it sticks to its demands and backs them up with military deterrence, Israel will get what it wants by creating “faits accomplis” on the ground..

The Palestinian leadership, despite its sincerity to the cause, was not different from the Arab leadership. It wasted the the precious moment of natrional unity after the first intifada, and thereafter, it fell into the trap of Oslo, which gave the Palestinian no concrete rewards. Mr. Arafat missed opportunities he could have accepted and negotiated their amelioration. He had no realization of the limits of his possibilities and chose not to act when he should. His successors in Ramallah have been negotiating with Israel from unequal power positions producing nothing in thirty years. They held on to false hopes and nondemocratic power whose mandate expired 13 years ago. In consequence, the PA descended into impotence, irrelevance and inevitable corruption.

Netanyahu and the Israeli-Right Complicity

Hamas was a boon for Israel, because it split the Palestinian ranks and offed the world a non- realistic extreme strategy which ignores the fact of a nuclear Israel with 7.5 million human beings whose protection and survival should be a concern for everybody including all sane Arabs. Further, Hamas advocated a wind-mills strategy totally beyond its capacities and means.

Mr. Netanyahu and Israeli political figures who oppose a Palestinian state thought that Hamas is a convenient political adversary to the P.A. which undermines the latter`s advocacy of a two state solution. Moreover, with the gap between its goals and means, they thought that Hamas is a controllable nuisance and a convenient target for world rejection (Adam Raz )[11].

Hamas, a shoot of political Islam, has no support in most Arab Governments. This lack of support pushed it to allow itself to become a tool for Iran`s regional politics. Iran tools, Hamas in Gaza, Hizbullah in Lebanon and the scores of shite militias operating in Iraq, Yemen and Syria, are proxies used by Iran to destabilize the region and assert its regional importance. In the case of Syria, these proxies have waged a war on its people. In rfeality, Iran`s support of the Palestinian cause while loud in words, is strictly conditioned by its national interests and national priorities. In the present conflict, Iran has stood aside and labelled the action in Gaza as 100 % Palestinian. (Nasrullah speech)[12].

It would be wrong for the Arab states to leave Hamas`followers, as a rersistence idea, to Iranian control; they should wean them off its false promises. On the other hand, Israel cannot defeat a political movement and idea by military force no matter how many people it kills. So both the Arab states and Israel should replace Hamas as advocates of a just peace and future hope. However, the Arab states have given up in the face of Israeli intransigence and many of them have sought normalization with Israel without a Palestinian counterpart. In the same vein, Israel has never accepted doing justice to the Palestinians bercause of its ethnocentric Zionism. This leads straight into the question of what political settlement will come out of the present tragedy to guarantee no return to the EX-Post Ante

The Two States Solution

Despite 100 years of dispute the question is simple : there are two peoples claiming the same land. The issue is not which side is right, but that they both are a fact on the ground; history is seldom a record of justice and the facts on the ground are the basis of any pragmatic solution.

There are really only two solutions: either one democratic secular state based on one person one vote; that is, a binational state where Jews and Palestinians are equal before the law, or a separate Palestinian state on the 1967 borders with very minor negotiated modifications and with Easat Jerusalem as its capital. .

After killing more than 11 thousand civilians up to the present (November12, 2023), maiming 27 thousand others, levelling off half of Gaza, and losing 1200 Israelis, the stage is not set for co-living in one state ( note on casualties )[13]. Extremists on both sides see nothing in common. The trauma of wars breeds hatred and mistrust which take a generation to heal. A sina qua non for a sigle state is for Israel to accept dezionization which is rooted in settlement colonialiosm; a task herculian in dimention. Thus, the two state solution, despite all its current obstacles, is the only realistic and achievable one. This will not be supported by Mr. Netanyahu and other right- wing hawks like him, for after all that happened, Mr. Netanyhu (Press interview with ABS on 9 November, CNN and NBC on 12 November )[14], said Israel will establish military control over Gaza indefinitely but without Israel being responsible for the welfare of its in habitgants. This is war without a politcal end. Like the old Bourbones, Mr. Netanyahu seems to have forgotten nothing and learned nothing. He has built his whole career on security for Israel through war on the Palestinans, witrh the implicit hope that they will leave. Opposing a Palestinian state became his Jabotenskian mission.

The two-state solution will have to be imposed by the moderates in Israel, the Arab States, the EU. and the US first and foremost. [15], for there is no peace -seeking majority in Israel now. and the recent events have brought out an ugly revengful majority.

The US has never been serious about forcing Israel to accept the Two-State solution and its policies in that matter have been justly described as a lawyer for Israel. As amatter of fact, the US vetoed the acceptance of Palestine in 2011 member of the UN. it has falsely promised the Palestinians to go back to this suspended question if thjey shjow patience. It did the same recently by voting with 8 other states against a UNGAS rersolution with an apèproving majority of 144 UN members. On the other hand, the present Israeli Government position is total rejection of a Palestinian state. This is backed by a 72 % majority of Isreali public opinion. Isrtael rejection of peace is only there because of the US unconditional supporet. It does indeed harm Israeli long-term interests and damages the cause of long-run peace for its people. thus, if the US means what it now publically say, it has to use its enormouis leverge on Israel to change the Israeli present government as did Henry Kissinger in 1974 when he ousted Golda Meire and as did Secrwetary James Baker at the time of the Madrid Conference. and this has to bne translated into actions and policy change and not empty words.

The major features of the two state solution have been known for several years and it is a pity that so much blood has been spilled unnecessarily. What can be done? The author proposes the followings.

First, after the end of the Israeli action, by a permenat cessation of hostilities, an international aadministration under the aggies of the UN with a force led by neutral and Arab states should take over Gaza for a short transitory period decided in advance.

Second, this International Administration will run Governmental services in Gaza.

TTthird, the Palestinian Authority needs fundamental reforms and Hamas, as a political idea, cannot be ignored. To handle that, the international Community should first demand of Hasmas to rejoin the PLO and a accept UNSC 442 in return for an eventual Palestinian state. A helpful step is to recognize a plestiniamn state on 1967 border and call on isarel and palestine to workout the detsails within a time period. Experience has shown that the internatioinal Community must participate in these negotiatioin as an initiator of the idea.

Translating the call for reformiong the Palestinian authority would rerqujire all that an tnternationally supervised free elections in all the Palestinian territory. This will, in all liklihood, result in a new elected representatives different nrom the present caste in both Gaza and the West bank. This autority will then take over governing functions.in all the Palestinian territory.

fourth, the UN would call for an International Conference to bring about the two state solution in accordance with the 1948 two state solution but on the 1967 borders of UNSCV 442 with slight negotiated modifications that can permit the existence of a connected Palestinian state in Gaza, the West bank and East Jerusalem. Fixing in advance, the objective without ambiguity and the duration of the negotiations are what was missing in the Oslo Accord.

Fifthrth, East Jerusalem should be the capital of the Palestinian state with open access to all religious sites and full protection of all communities and inhabitants.

Fifth, the settlers on Palestinian lands (750, 000) should be given the choice of either returning to Israel or remaining unarmed under the sovereignty of the Palestinian state which would respect their legitimate rights on the principle of equality of all under the law.

Sixth, Israel should compensate the 1948 refugees for their lost properties and a part of that can be paid for by the evacuated constructed colonies on the west bank. Israel should also compensate Palestinians in the West bank whose property was damaged by its wall and by the settlers.

Seventh, any Palestinian should have the right to return to the Palestinian state if he/she wants or accept compensation.

Eighth, slight modification of the 1967 borders can be negotiated by the Palestinians and the Israelis to assure a viable connected Palestinian state. The barriers, check points and the wall , should all be dismantled. this negotiation should have a limited time framework decided in advance.

Ninth, to cement the peace, the UNSC should decide under Chapter Seven of the charter, the recognition and guarantee of the agreed established borders.

Tenth, transition periods and measures to create confidence should be provided.

Upon the achievement of this peace agreement, the Arab states will in accordance with the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, recognize Israel and exchange diplomatic, economic and people to people relationships. This means the return of the Golan Heights to Syria and the return to the 1967 borders with Lebanon.

If the US and behind it some European governments, do not enforce this settlement on Israel, they will be exposed as double standard hypocrites in the eyes of most of the world population and even in the eyes of a significant part of their informed public opinion (Note on demonstrations )[16].

An acceptable peace settlement will be a triumph of Israelis and Palestinians over their selves and on ideology. Hopefully, a peaceful Middle East will finally bring Democracy and economic well-being to this area, and that is the long term peace protector

( Founex, November 14, 2023)

Notes

[1] Fareed Zakaria, GPS, CNN, November 12, 2023.

[2] See President Biden`s Open Ad article in the Washington Post , November, 2023.

[3] Spaine, Norway, Belgiume and Irland registered honourable exceptions to other countries in the West

[4] https// www.Ochapot.org.org, 2023 movements

[5]. Nathan Thrall,” A day in The Life of Abed Salama; Anatomy of a Jerusalem Tragedy”, Metropolitan 2022.

[6[ Since 11967, about one million Palestinians have been to jail. Among them hundred of thousands of women, girls and boys under 18. One of the notorious means is administrative detention. Under this procedure, any body at whatever age can be detained without explanation and without allowing the prisoner, his lawyer or his /her parent to know what is the charge. For the first initial period the interrogation by military personals takes place without lawyer or parent and can involve torture and abuse. This is a flagrant violation of due process and the international law applicable to occupied territories.

[7] David Schulman, » Heading Towards a Second Nakbah », in New York Review of Books, October, 9, 2023.

[8] A Few weeks after the establishment of Israel, the armed militias of Israel attacked Arab villages and committed shocking massacres in Dair- Yassine, Kubbia and Nahaleen and other villages against the villagers. These massacres triggered emigration of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to neighboring countries. Five hundred Arab Villages were erased to the ground and their inhabitants were ethnically cleansed to realize the Zionist dream of a land without people. These refugees scattered in camps including those in Gaza.

[9] Wikipedia consulted on 2 November 2023, gave Jewish owned property in Palestine in 1947 at 5.67 percent. In the 1947 Partition Plan of the UN, the Jewish state was allocated 52 % while the Arab one 48 %. The number of Arabs living in Palestine was more than two and a half times the number of the Jewish inhabitants but their share was less than half. See the Jewish Voice for Peace for more details.

[10] The lack of seriousness of the Arab leaders was manifest by the reservations of Egypt Prime Minister on getting involved which was overruled by king Farouk. Moreover in the Bludan Conference held in Syria before the hostilities, the Arab leaders chose King Abdullah of Jordan to be the supreme commander. King Abdullah was for years in touch with the Zionist leaders to reach an arrangement with them that expands his kingdom. Furthermore, he had been investing his private fortune with the Rothchild Bank, a big supporter of the Zionist project.

The Arab armies that showed up were outnumbered by the Israeli armed militias; the Arabs fielded 36 thousands against 60 thousands by the small Jewish population. Their best fighting force, the Jordanian army, was led by British officers, the Iraqi army was under strict orders not to attack while Iraq`s Prime minister Salih Jabre was negotiating with the UK about Iraq`s independence, Syria had a very small army and Lebanon none, and the Egyptian Army was badly led and underequipped.

The Israelis had more military experience, and after the first seize -fire, had succeeded in getting big arm shipments from Czechoslovakia at the time.

11] See Adam Raz, “A Brief Historyy of the Netayahu- Hamas Alliance”, Haaretz, Israeli news, October 28,2023.

[12] After one month of silence , Hizbullah leader Hasan Nassrulah addressed his supporters in a public rally on the war in Gaza. He said that the decision of Hamas was a purely Palestinian decision. He expressed his support of Hamas and threatened that everything is possible if Israel aggression does not stop. But he did not mention anything his group will take to support Hamas. It was a message of “we are not in”. The fear is that Hizballah might fear that if Hamas is eliminated, then its turn will come and its little credibility in the Arab World, might force it to action despite Iran`s wishes.

[13] Israel bombardment has killed so far (November, 12) 11000 civilians of whom 4600 are children. The Israeli campaign has also injured 27,000 civilians. All hospitals have stopped to function for lack of fuel, electricity, medicine and supplies. Although these are numbers provided by Hamas` health authorities, it is likely that they underestimate the actual casualties, for so many are still missing under the rubble. In the past four Gaza wars, Hamas authority figures tallied well with the UN figures.

At the outset of the hostilities, Israel claimed 1400 Israeli were killed. It was dicovered later that the number is 1157. and that 200 bodies of Israelis and Palestinians were killed not by Hamas but by the Israeli army!!!. To hide this, these bodies were burnt by the Israeli army and Hamas was accused of doing so. Claerly, the charred cars and surrounding carnage could have bneen done only by airoplanes and bombartdment. ccould only have been done by plasnes and bombardement.d burnt. SOf the number of total Israeli casualties only 756 were civilians and the rest armed soldiers and policemen. ome of the Israeli claims, namely, the beheding of children and rape of women, have never been documented or confirmed by independent sources. It would stretch the imagination that tin the midst of a fast-paced attack on the much superiorly equipped Israeli army, anybody would take the time to rape women.

[14] Mr. Netanyahu was interviewed by ABC,(November 9) and twice by CNN and by NBC`s d NBC Meet the Press (November 12). In all these interviews, he said that Israel will have to have an overall security control over Gaza. He also allowed that he does not think that the PA is a suitable authority. Lastly, his concept of humanitarian relief is to allow a corridor of safe passage for Palestinian to evacuate Northern Gaza for 3-4 hours a day. He reiterated his opposition to any cease-fire.

[15] It is likely that neither the current PA nor Hamas will win this election. The elected PA will be quite different than the current PA.

[16] Demonstrations in New York ,London, Paris, London Madrid and other capitals involved hundred of thousands who were appalled by the butchery on display by the Media. Twelve Democrat US senators addressed a letter to President Biden asking him to intervene to allow humanitarian relief. In recent polls, the youth voters, including young Jews, and progressive Democrats have signalled their opposition to the civilian toll of the Israeli operation. The latest polls shows that Mr. Biden`s handling of the Gaza affair has cost him a drop of his support among young voters by 30 points.

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