the Blog Papers of Dr. Michael Sakbani; Economics, Finance and Politics: The Triumph of a People; Syria Rises from the Ashes of a Barbnaric Dictatorship

the Blog Papers of Dr. Michael Sakbani; Economics, Finance and Politics

Michael Sakbani, Ph.D., is a former professor of Economics and Finance at the Geneva campus of Webster and Thunderbird. He is a senior iational consultant to the UN system, European Union and Swiss banks. His career began at the State university of NY at Stoney Brook, then the Federal Reserve Bank of New York followed by UNCTAD where he was Director of the divisions of Economic Cooperation, Poverty Alleviation, and Special Programs. Michael Sakbani has published 150 professional papers and coauthored six books. The « Intelligent Economist » elected michael.sakbani.blogspot.com as one of the top 100 economics blogs in the world in 2020,.2022 and 2023.

Brill and Kodus disseminates Dr, Sakbani`s papers to all research institutions in the World.

Dr. Sakbani won numerous prizes and awards for his intellectual distinction.

The Triumph of a People; Syria Rises from the Ashes of a Barbaric Dictatorship

Dr. Michael Sakbani

Part one: the Revolution*

The 7^th of December 2024 was a day not like any other. The people of Syria triumphed over a regime that crushed them, jailed them, killed a million of them, and enslaved them by 10 armies that used Syria as a battle ground where their daily fare was killing Syrians. Where have the torturers of the Dictator disappeared, where have the security services gladiators evaporated, where have the defenders of barbarity choaked on their words? One wonders in disbelief how five armies steeped in crime disappeared without a whimper.

The jubilation was overwhelming, and long overdue, but convulsed by the scenes from the slaughterhouse prisons of the regime. The few hundreds that came out were a part of thousands vanished. When liberated, they could not open their eyes at the light that tolled the dictatorship is no more. And long ago, they forgot their names and where they were.

A rotten system

The rot of the regime, however, started when Hafez al Assad was still in power. About the mid- nineties, the economy of Syria started to collapse. The dominant public sector w running into the red; eighty of the hundred most important public enterprises were losing money (Wikipedia, 2010)^[1] The policies of rural support financed by money printing reached its hyper inflationary limits. The attempt to encourage foreign investment embodied in law 10 failed as no investor in his right mind could trust his money in a country run on corruption, beneficiaries’ percentages, and the theft of public and private finance. The oil and gas revenues slid down between the mid -nineties and 2005, by eleven folds, to a mere 24 thousand barrels per day; the agricultural crops which previously fed Syria went down by two thirds. The removal of price support for farmers increased their production cost and incentivised them to abandon their farms and emigrate to cities seeking employment. And Syria was experiencing a strong demographic boom with 300,000 young people joining the labour-force every year while the economy could create only 65 thousand jobs (Economy Watch ,2011)^[2]

Since the hereditary republic of Hafez al Assad bestowed the Presidency upon his son in one session of a rubber- stamp parliament, the regime was plagued with additional problems. Bashar al Assad came with the expectations of a reformer (note by the author)^[3]. Many reformers coalesced under the so called “Damascus Spring” and came up with proposals of reforms (Damascus declaration)^[4]. The inexperienced President found all that way above his head. Being a minority sectarian regime popped up by security forces and public suppression, his father`s old guard, his beneficiary family, forbade the new president to do any reform. To them, democracy and civil liberties meant exposing the government to the rule of law, under a legal majority. That is certainly a zero-sum game for them. Their advice was suppression and liquidation of dissenting voices. Between 2000 and 2011, Bashar al Assad became as brutal as his cruel father, but with much less street cunning.

*in this part, the paper relates the collapse of the Assad regime and the triumph of the revolution. It examines the performance of the interim Government and the problems it poses and those it faces. Several Constitutional suggestions are presented for a parliamentary bi-chamber system.

In 2005, President Assad changed the economic system from state controlled to “societal socialism”. The idea was copied from the German system. However, he did not implement anything with respect to social services and the protection of the society`s poorer class. He opened the frontiers signing a free trade agreement with Turkey. This nearly wiped out the uncompetitive local industry. The beneficiaries of this opening were the children of his father`s old guards and his own family members who used their connections and power to amass fortunes and force themselves as percentage partners upon any profitable business. This was gangsters’ capitalism without much control. His continuation of liquidating price support of fuel and basic needs caused further emigration to the cities of 1 million farmers between 2006 and 2010 and caused massive increase in poverty. As one approached 2011, 80 percent of the population was living below the UN poverty line (OCHA, 2010)^[5]

The revolution of the poor and oppressed.

Then 2011 came about. The Tunisian vendor who burnt himself in protesting suppression, soon unleashed a popular uprising against tyranny, injustice, and poverty. This was a Tsunami that soon spread to Libya, Egypt, Algeria, Sudan, and Yemen. And in March 2011, Syria was its next destiny. But Syria was different than all others. It was not the Syrian Army or the deep state that run the country, but a sectarian minority oppressive system that suppressed the masses and excluded them from political participation for 61 years (note on the Baath)^[6]. Bashar forgot, it seems, that his power was based on lies, minority sectarian rule, and security control.

At the beginning, it was peaceful popular call for reform. But the system was incapable of reform. The little children’s protest in Daraa was met by a sever security response. Colonel Atef Najeeb, the local regime security chief, answered the demonstrators with bullets and insults (Najeeb 2011)^[7]. His cousin the President, was just as foolish and as severe. He decreed more armed suppression. This response exploded popular protest all over Syria. Soon, the calls turned from reforms to deposing the regime and that culled forth more armed suppression and more fallen victims. By September 2011, the initial peaceful protest turned into an armed conflict. The protestors picked up arms in self-protection against the armed assault of the regime. As the Army was unleashed on the people, defections started from its forces. The defected soldiers and officers formed “The Free Syrian Army” which was soon joined by local spontaneous and rather disorganized groups. Syria found itself in a free-for- all armed conflict, a conflict that was neither planned nor organized, nor even properly led.

A tsunami soon called the “Arab Spring” was upon the whole area.

The outside reactions were varied. The US and Western response were verbally supportive. Turkey tried hard, but in vain, to convince Assad to respond by accepting political reforms. But he refused to respond. The authoritarian Arab regimes were alarmed by this virus of democracy and popular assertions spreading next doors.

A coordinated counter revolution response was soon in evidence. The concerned Arab states were able to penetrate various factions of this leaderless and disorganized revolution and recruit theirleaders as its paid agents. Thus, the factions started having different agendas. The Western powers were alarmed at the lack of viable alternatives. Israel was against the revolution, because Assad and his father, have both kept its frontiers safe and guarded. Thus, the Syrian revolution ended its sseond year with minimal military supportc o nd a wrih o channelled to the Islamist factions and only verbal support from all the others.

This is when the sectarian regime of Nouri al Maliki in Iraq, the regime itself and the Islamists Shiite government in Iran coordinated the creation of ISIS (Sakbani, 2011)^[8].

The revolution slowly lost its way in local fighting disputes among its factionalized militias with divergent political aims. They fought each other and did not help each other when attacked (sakbani, 2022)^[9]. In a short while, as ISIS became dominant. the revolutionaries became minor players. Thus, for many foreign countries the choice was reduced to a binary one between the regime and the fanatic, ruthless fundamentalists. Yet, despite the heavy direct Iranian backing of e regime and the massive participation of Hizbullah of Lebanon in the fight, by mid 2015, Assad had lost control of 80 percent of Syria and was teetering on the brink of defeat. His repeated use of chemical weapons against Syrians was tolerated by the US under President Obama, and by the rest of the world in return for a deal cooked up by Secretaries Kerry and Lavrov to handing over these weapons to the international Agency, essentially to protect Israel.

At that point, Qassem Suleimani, the military commander of the Iranian revolutionary Guard and the Quds Brigade was sent to Moscow to convince President Putin to intervene militarily in Syria with promises of warm water base on the Syrian coast and a return of Russia`s geopolitical influence in the area. Russia`s intervention was covertly authorized by the US and indirectly financed by some Arab-Gulf capitals (The Guardian, August 16, 2020)^[10]. While its announced target was ISIS, 80 percent of its bombardment aimed at Syrian revolutionary targets (Wikipedia, January 2025)^[11].

Iran`s 28 Shiite militias brought from all over the world, and Russia`s carpet bombing of Syrian cities, villages, markets, hospitals, schools, and revolutionary positions turned the tide of the revolution. Assad survived not by the dent of his power but by the support of Iran, Russia, Hezbollah and the complicity of the US and the authoritarian Arab states.

Astana; Sochi and the change in Turkey`s policies

Faced with this reality, Turkey reordered its priorities and joined Russia and Iran in Astana to arrive at an agreement to establish five zones of ceasefire in Syria. Rebels who did not want to lay down their arms were transferred to Idleb in North-Western Syria. As of 2019, President Assad enjoyed a respite from combat he did not initiate. However, he attacked with Russian bombardment and Iranian militia help all these zones and captured significant chunks of territory. He convinced himself that he snuffed out the revolution and declared victory without any political concessions on his part.

The Russians and the Turks pressed him for political negotiations with the opposition, but he doubled down and refused any compromise. President Erdogan of Turkey tried repeatedly to meet with him to break the impasse, but he refused to meet before Turkey withdraws all its forces from Syria (Turkey`s change of policy, Aleppo)^[12].

Preparing the assault

The nearly four and a half million rebels and inhabitants concentrated in Idlib fell under the control of the ex-global jihadist Abu Mohammad Aljolani. Aljolani, age 42, had a checker career taking him from ISIS to al Qayda to jabhutulnusra to the front of the liberation of al Sham (HTS). And when he entered Damascus, he trimmed his beard, caste off his “nom de guerre”, put on a necktie and declared his real name: Ahmed Alsharä.

In Idlib he ran a rather efficient administration of the civilian population, while pursuing rigorous military preparations through a remarkable and top-notch organizational setup. He also managed to bring the various factions in Idlib under a unified command to be known later as “the Unified Command to Deter Aggression”.

The assault was prepared over a long time stretching for more than a year. Turkey no doubt knew what was underway, but it okayed only a limited incursion into the north-western villages of Aleppo. However, at the time these villages were taken, the Israelis succeeded in hitting the military targets of the Iranians in Syria and destroyed their fighting cadres. They also hit all Hizbullah supply routes through Syria. And, after Israel attacked Lebanon. and destroyed the fighting abilities of Hizbullah, there were only the Russians to deal with. Turkish intelligence knew that the Russian told Assad they cannot help him. This was passed on to HTS. Thus, Aljolani sensed that the right moment to launch the attack has tolled. He needed Turkey to persuade the Russians not to intervene. This, Turkey did in the Doha meeting of November 2024.

Aljolani launched his attack on 27 November with discipline and determination, but with strict orders not to harm civilians and public institutions. As he sensed no will to fight by the exhausted and impoverished Syrian Army,whose soldiers were hungry and its top officers earning $22 a month, he pressed the attack and captured all of Aleppo. Turkey which certainly did not expect that, had henceforth to play a catch-up game. The Army withdrew to Hamah to fight back. But HTS` disciplined troops fought five days of battles around the city defeating the 25^th division and injuring its commanding General. Their tactics employed advanced drones and suicide ones eliminating key commanders, and thrusts in many directions. Then, they pressed their attack on Homs and took the city and its military posts in three days without much resistance. The fall of Homs cut off road access to the coast. The officers and security personnel of the regime knew that the battle is lost, and all ran away.

While these battles were taking place in the North, the Southern forces in Daraa, that is, the 5^th corp and the 8^th brigade, moved toward Damascus and entered its outskirts with dispatch. Assad held a meeting with his major commanders on the 7^h of December and assured them falsely that Russia promised help in 24 hours. Adding to his deceitful camouflage, he instructed his-speech writer to come to his residence to write a speech to deliver next day. Then in the dark of the night, he fled Damascus with his two sons, two financial advisers, the Minister of defence, and the Chief of staff of the army, and whatever sacks of foreign money he could gather( K.Saqre)^[13] Even his brother Maher, did not know that (Manal J. Assad)^[14].He headed to the Humaymeem base by helicopter and from there he flew to Moscow where President Putin granted him humanitarian asylum.

In retrospect, Assad has been planning his escape since the beginning of 2024. He has raided the Syrian Central Bank and the Syrian Treasury throughout 2024 to steel foreign exchange and to transfer it to his accounts in Russia.

It not yet known who gave the order to the military unities to disband. If it were Assad, then he acted according to the maxim, after me the deluge. But if it were the Army chiefs, then there might be a smell of a hidden deal and a price to pay.

Surprisingly, the 5^th and 7^th divisions guarding the Golan Heights abandoned their positions giving Israel the pretext to occupy the demilitarized zone in the Gollan Heights. Next day, Israel attacked and destroyed with 450 air- strikes the un-guarded infrastructure of the Syrian Army.

The temporary government in Damascus

The rebels entered Damascus from the North at 6.12 am on 8^thDecember, ending in eleven days 61 years of Dictatorship, 54 years of which under the corrupt, brutal, and sectarian minority rule of the Assad family.

It was a day of triumph for the Syrian people after 14 years of a grinding revolution. The jubilation of triumph was overwhelming, the more so, that it happened without outside help and with little loss of life. But the jubilation was convulsed by the discovered slaughter-house prisons of the regime and the mass graves where 150 thousand Syrians missing for years, disappeared. It is reported that 64 thousand were killed under torture. In the Sednaya prison, 56 thousand entered the prison, but only 2400 were found alive (the Syrian monitor of human rights)^[15]

Mr. Alsharä’s first act was to install his own Idlib government as a temporary executive. That was not ideal and rather exclusivist but was justified on pragmatic grounds. This authority started cooperation with the existing civilian Government of Assad to safeguard and receive control of the institutions of the state. They moved then to secure internal security and police and provide some essential population services.

The installed executive had two critical cabinets missing: the ministries of defence and interior. Ten days after its installation, the two ministries were formed. HTS appointed the deputy of Mr. Alsharä in Idlib as the Minister of Defence. None of the more than 6000 officers who defected from Assad`s army were returned to service, despite the obvious need for their professional expertise. According to the plans of the interim authority, the factions of the HTS are supposed to dissolve into it. Other factions are to do the same. Mr. Alsharä declared that “the state will have the monopoly of arms and all factions have to lay down their arms and hand them over to the state”. Missing from this critical act of state are four factions: the National Syrian Army under the control of Turkey, the Kurds in Qasad”, the Free Syrian Army controlled by the US in Tenf, and the Southern faction of Daraa. However, every one of these factions has reservations about joining right away. They are like all observers, perplexed by the lack of clarity and transparency in the matter of this Ministry. People with no professional military training are being given high military ranks while the professional officers who sacrificed everything for their defection are not even called.

In this regard, six foreigners were conducted into the Syrian army as an act of gratitude for their services. Such an act took place in various countries throughout history. However, it was precipitous in the case of an army where there is not yet a professional cadre to lead it. This behaviour clearly does not inspire trust.

The objections of many factions to join the Army will likely be resolved in time. But Qasad is unique because what it demands can neither be accepted nor tolerated. According to informed sources, Qasad wants to join as a group led by a Kurd independent of the command of the Army (al Arabiah, Rahhal)^[16].

The installation of the Idlib cabinet in Damascus raises questions about the nominations to many posts which were clearly provincial and may be even beyond the abilities of these appointees. Certainly, the criterion was confidence and not ability. So far, the record of performance in foreign affairs is much superior to that in domestic affairs. The Foreign Ministers of France, Germany, and Italy came to Damascus. So did the US ‘Assistant Secretary for the middle East. In the last month, the Syrian interim Minister of Foreign Affairs and a group of high officials visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Jordan. He also attended in Riad, Saudi Arabia, a meeing held on 9 January, 2025 to discuss helping Syria and removing sanctions.

Performance in local services is not yet satisfactory. Tens of thousands of Syrians lost their previous salaries and are adrift. Electricity and basic needs of food, water, public -health and shelter are not yet adequate. Mr.Alsharä has not yet given a single speech to the Syrian people to explain his plans, and the installed administration domestic security record has not been impressive.

The question arises whether Mr. al Sharä is really a political Islamist seeking exclusive non-democratic control. He has behaved rationally and with moderation. Is it, as he said, that he has changed his youthful views as he aged and matured or that the events he has lived in Idlib and Damascus have imparted a new living experience that changed him. Change can occur through learning by doing and experiencing. In his meeting with the Lebanese leader Waleed Junblat, he talked about building a new Syria with a “social contract” between the people and the state. This is rather astonishing coming out of a Political Islamist. Islamists talk about applying the Sharia ordained by God to organize the relation between people and the state. All one can hope is that he has become a moderate Islamist.

What can be said about Mr. Alsharä however, cannot be said about all his followers in the HTS. Many of them are Islamist idealogues, especially the foreigners who put their lives on the line for what they believe. These fellows with Islamic beards are not in synch with most of the Syrians and are a threat to many foreign powers.

There is now talk about convening a “National Conference” in January for agreeing on the outlines of a new constitution and the composition of the transition government. The number of 1200 is bandied around, The Conference is a good idea to give institutional legitimacy to the new order, and to begin an active relation between people and authority. The conference is supposed to dissolve the Parliament, stop the work with Assad`s constitution, dissolve all the factions, and form a committee to draft the constitution according to general principles it formulates. But inviting 1200 to a convention of limited time will produce no results. Several sessions are needed.

There are many questions raised in this regard: who is inviting whom and how representative of the society are the invitees; how can1200 invitees decide things. The idea seems to be justified to legalize things but not to decide matters of transition before building civil society institutions, like Syndicates, professional associations and institutions, local councils, and similar others. What might be useful is to revive the Damascus Spring by opening platforms of public debates about the future. The discussions ought to be only in general principles leaving drafting to an expert group. Some important figures of the political opposition abroad such as George Sabrah, Riad Asaad, Dr. Burhan Ghalion, Dr Riad Hijab and similar others should be involved. If Mr. Alsharä wants just to bag legitimacy, then the Conference will have no value. The Conference can produce a great service if it formulates a “National Charter “which outlines the leading points for a group of experts asked to write the Constitution.

This author thinks that using an amended version of the 1950 constitution can serve as an interim constitution while the new constitution is still in process.

Luckily, the date of the event, 9 th of January, was postponed.

The temporary government will last till the beginning of March 2025. In this short period, an inclusive transition authority with full powers will have to be installed. It would be a grave mistake for the HTS to decide on their own who should be appointed, and even graver if the same figures from Idlib are chosen. A Government of technocrats mixed with a couple of known personalities outside the Idlib group, is the good choice. Will Mr. Alsharä prove that he is not an authoritarian Islamist? One hopes so.

In the transition period, the temporary Government will face disturbances and rebellious acts by the regimes ex-officers and supporters. Iranian officials from the Guide Mr. Khaminaii downward, are encouraging the remnants of the regime to rise against the interim government. These should be met with a resolute but wise response. The Alawite Community is understandably apprehensive about its current position. It is accused of large participation in the regime`s excesses. However, while that is true for the Alawites regime participants, it is not true for the whole community. The temporary government must move swiftly to enact laws and procedures to carry out “Transitory Justice” by special courts of law. The trials should be conducted according to international standards of justice and transparency. This ought not to involve large numbers but only the main notorious participants in crimes. Operations to disarm and chase the regime`s followers have netted several hundred suspects. The suspected criminals should be brought before these Courts.

South Africa pioneered a useful practice of Regret and Confession panels for establishing a national memory record. It is a meritorious idea that should be considered for those who are not under legal pursuit to achieve national reconciliation and peace.

The transition roadmap is literally copied from UNSC decision 2254. However, the three first parts of this decision are overtaken by the actual toppling of the regime. Indeed, there is no Assad government to negotiate with, access to all areas is opened, and all the prisoners are freed. Thus, bodies like the National Etilaf, the Moscow and Cairo platforms, the Constitutional Committee, and the Negotiating Group have all become “caduc”. Their members should now return to Syria to enter the fray as welcomed political participants.

In this respect, some foreign powers such as the US and the UN, and certainly, the UAE and Egypt and even Iraq, have tried in the Aqaba Meeting to use decision 2254 to dictate demands and impose conditions. This is a manifestation of the distrust harboured in respect of the Islamist character of the HTS and its lack of transparency so far.

The irony is that the Arab Countries have collectively, except Qatar, tried to normalize with As

sad and naively thought that he can be trusted. They invited him to the Riad Summit and drew up a step counter step for their help and acceptance. That was naïve. Assad continued his keptagon trade, he continued to refuse the return of Syrian refugees. That was naïve and complicit. (Sakbani, 2023)^[17].

At any rate, economic sanctions ought to be distinguished from official assistance. Countries can easily pressure the system by holding back their assistance. However, economic sanctions lifting is important for starting the economy, and for reconstruction. With the fall of the regime, there is no justification for their continuation. It is obvious that UNSC`s 2254 is being used to impose conditions on lifting sanctions. All the above-mentioned states are worried about the rise of an Islamist regime in Syria. Syrians should be equally worried, for nobody wants to replace Assad with a bearded dictator.

How ironic it is that until the 27^th of November, the West, Russia, most Arabs states and Israel were trying to rehabilitate Assad. What a change has the revolutionaries effected!

The transition to elections under the supervision of the UN, should take place over a couple of years to prepare Syria for a political life after 61 years of absence of Democracy and forbidden political life. Before elections a census of the population within and without Syria must be done. This would determine the electorate lists and enable the authorities to revamp all citizenry-documents. Hurrying up elections will lead to immature results. On the other hand, Mr. Alsharä views of 4 years is a guess one hopes to prove unnecessary.

Once security is assured, reconciliation and national peace are achieved, and a period of stability under law and order is realized, reconstruction can start if economic sanctioned are removed. The interested reader can find a detailed plan of action spelled out in the domains of the economy, the socio-cultural, and the political integrity of the Syrian territory in part two of this series (Sakbani,forthcoming ,January 20, 2025)^[18]

The recovery and reconstruction of Syria cannot be done without massive Arab and international help. Private participation, however, will not take place until transparency and the rule of law are established.

The regime confiscated hundreds of thousands of homes and properties and granted them to individuals brought by Iran and Hiuzbullah. All of that should be nullified as of April 2011 and any objection examined on case -by- case basis.

Ahmed Alsharä is now the de facto leader of Syria. His messages and public interviews have been moderate and very assuring regarding the Arab states, regional, and world powers. Of the remaining 5 armies, Israel is the only dangerous one. while Syria is not at present capable of confronting Israel, Zionist Israel is a danger to and an enemy of Syria. Israel`s policy aims to divide and weaken its neighbours and its Zionism is settlement colonialism. Mr. Alsharä should be aware that Israel is different than all other neighbours.

Syria, Turkey and President Erdogan

It is widely believed that Turkey is the biggest winner in Syria. Egyptian and Arab Commentators go to saying that Turkey is now in control of Syria. This is clearly misinformed. To be sure, HTS in Idlib was friendly with Turkey and they shared intelligence, but Alsharä always guarded his independence and his aims. At any rate, it is not in Turkey`s national interest for Syria to be under a total Turkish tutelage.

The benefits of the Syrian events are without doubt good for Turkey and for President Erdogan. A stable and friendly government in Damascus is in Turkey`s national security interests. It opens the land roads for Turkey`s commerce with the Arab World. Turkey`s construction firms will have a great business opportunity in Syria`s reconstruction (stock prices)^[19]. An undivided Syria is also a guarantee that the Kurds will not have separatist base in Syria. President Erdogan emerges with more popularity domestically, because the visual evidence that the Turkish public saw on T.V. convinces many that he was right about the evils of the Assad system and his policies in its respect. He also succeeded in eliminating the refugee’s problem as a domestic policy issue.

Looking at things from Syria`s side, Turkish help in reconstruction, in building up the state and in training and arming its future army, are all in Syria`s interest. Another fall out for Mr. Alsharä, is the possible adoption of Turkey`s secularism, which is more acceptable to Syrians in general, and particularly to those who lived in turkey for 14 years under a devout leadership like the JD Party.

Setting up a Democratic civil state; Constitutional Suggestions

In what follows, the author presents his own suggestions for some major features of a new Constitution.

The Constitution should enshrine the protection of human rights and liberties as spelled out by the UN charter and declaration as the founding principles of the land.

Syria should be a democratic, civil state with peaceful transfer of power and alteration of governance by the free will of the people as expressed in free and transparent elections.

At this time, the parliamentary form of governance is best suitable. The three state powers; the Executive, Legislative and Judiciary should be totally independent of each other and set on the principle of checks and balances.

There should be a bi-chamber parliament: a house of representatives (HR) elected by election-districts of about 100,000 inhabitants on the principle of one man/woman-one vote (note on population)^[20]. The suggested term is 4 years for the House with term limit of four times and agfe limit of 80 at running time. The Senate will be elected by provinces (muhafazats) for an eight -year term. Half of the Senate is elected every 4 years and the term limits of three times a d age limit of 76 at running timre are suggested. Each province is suggested to have 6 Senators with the cities of Aleppo and Damascus, given their size and importance, having 6 additional city Senators. This is a total of 96 Senators.

The House of representative initiates all tax-expenditure matters and approves budgets. It has investigative and checking powers vis-à-vis the Executive and the Judiciary. The Senate has an advice and consent functions concerning the Executive nominations of all cabinmate members, ambassadors, judges, public prosecutors, commanding Generals, and foreign treaties. The Senate has a review- function in fiscal and monetary matters. If the two legislators have differences about laws, they initiate a reconciliation conference to arrive at an agreed solution.

The President is elected by a joint session of the legislatures for 4 years. He can serve only two elected terms. The president is the supreme commander of the Armed Forces and the responsible Chief in foreign affairs. The HR can impeach the President or any judge or high official for treason, misuse of function or violating the constitution. The Senate would hold itself in court for the judging the impeached.

Syria is based on the equality of all citizens in rights and duties regardless of any religious or ethnic identity (principle of mowatanah). All citizens enjoy full freedoms of speech, conscience, association, assembly, and public demonstration.

All beliefs and religions are protected by law and free to practice. The moral and cultural values and ethics of beliefs and religions are protected and respected and form a source of the legislation. The state is civil in nature and stands separate and at the same distance from any religion or ethnic origin of its citizens.

The Judiciary is free from any control by the executive or the legislature. The Supreme Legal Counsel (SLC) runs the judiciary. Its membership includes ex-officio the chiefs of the Constitutional Court, the Cassation Court, and the Administrative Tribunal. Other members are nominated by the President and approved by the Senate. They are selected form legally qualified men and women with impeccable moral and civil character. The head of the Constitutional Court is the ex-officio chairman of the SLC. The members serve for one unrenewable term of 6 years. All judges are appointed by the SLC who runs all the affairs the Judiciary.

The structure of the judiciary consists of first instance courts (bidayat), appeal courts (istinaf), cassesion courts (tamyeez), then constitutional court, and the administrative tribunal (Majlis al Dawlah).

The Syrian state is centralized in matters of natural resources, finance, economy, security and defence, infrastructure, and foreign relations. Each province or a part thereof can have autonomy in local education, administrative matters, local taxation, and provincial police. The extent of administrative self-governance may be negotiated with the central and approved by the national legislature.

Syria, whose population is 88 percent Arab, is a part of the Arab world and a founding member of its institutions of cooperation. Arabic is the official language with other languages allowed in addition, if requested by any group. Other ethnic components enjoy equal citizenry rights and have full respect of their culture, language, and traditions.

No political party can be licensed if it violates or advocates exclusivity on basis of religion or ethnic identity.

Geneva, 12/1/2025.

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Notes

1 . Wikipedia, 2010 consulted in 2019.

2 . Economic Watch, 2011.

3 . Hafez al Assad old in -chamber collaborator in crime and military defeats for 35 years, General Mustafa Tlass, and the four chiefs of the security forces, were determined to keep the Presidency in the Assad family. However, the alternatives were Bashar or his criminal uncle Rifaat. Hence, Bashar was the better alternative. After a brief interview with the US ‘Secretary of State Madelene Albright, and a recommendation by the Egyptian dictator Husni Mubarak, Bashar became the Presidential choice.

4. The Damascus declaration was the outcome of the “Damascus Spring”. The signatories were prominent opposition politicians and intellectuals. The declaration called for political reforms enabling free political parties, releasing political prisoners and allowing freedom of speech.

5. See OCHA; “Syria`s drought pushing millions into poverty”, 10 September 2010.

6. the Baath party was founded by Michele Aflaq and Salahuddin al Bittar in Damascus in 1937. It was a nationalist party on the European lines of the 1930s. it advocated Arab Unity based on common language and common populous aspirations. Soon, it spread to other Arab countries like Iraq and Jordan.

In 1949, it merged with the Arab Socialist Party led by Mr. Akram al Horani to become the Baath Arab Socialist Party. This new amalgam attracted the support of rural population, minority groups and elements of the military encouraged to join it by the activist Mr. Horani. In 1963, it took power in Syria by a military Coup d`Etat. After a conflictual three years, the military Baathists expelled the founding fathers and started an Alawite dominated governance of a One- Party System. In 1971, Hafez al Assad, took over power, and liquidated all his sectarian colleagues. Hafez al Assad rule was based on the army and 16 security forces that controlled everything and suppressed everybody. This gradually turned into a family and collaborator government run by fear and corruption.

7, When the notables of Daraa met the security chief, colonel Atef Najeeb to ask about their missing children, he told them to forget about their children. He added,” if you need children, bring your wives to us and we will impregnate them.”

8. The regime in Syria released from prison several hundreds of Islamist prisoners and a number of Saddam’s officers who were refugees in Syria. These were sent to Iraq to fight the US. At the same time, Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki of Iraq arranged for the biggest prison escape in history by letting go from the Bocca prison of 3000 prisoners. These groups were helped by the Syrian and Iranian intelligences to form ISIS. This fundamentalist group spread in Northeastern Syria and Northwestern Iraq. It fought the revolutionary rebels in Syria and expanded on their expense. Not once, it fought Assad`s forces. Thus, the choice for all countries became binary between Assad and the ISIS.

9. michael sakbani, “why did the Syrian revolution failed”, in michael.sakbani.blogspot .com, February, 2022.

10. The deputy chief of the Saudi intelligence Saad Aljabri told the Guardian of London that MBS, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and MBZ of the UAE, became of the opinion that Assad is a better choice for the two countries than the rebels, which they backed in the past. Thus, MBS flipped his country`s support for the rebels on its back early in 2015. According to the Guardian, Mr. Aljabri disclosed that “in June 2015, MBS flew to Saint Petersburg to meet Putin. They signed a cooper agreement on oil prices, space, and nuclear energy”. According to Mr. Aljabri, Russia was encouraged to support Assad by both MBS and MBZ.

11. Russia supported by Gulf Arab countries and permitted via an under-the-table understanding with the USA, intervened with its air-force and the Wagner Group in Syria. Although the Ostensible aim was fighting ISIS, Wikipedia concluded on the basis of experts, that “Russian scorched earth strategy has been on razing civilian areas and Syrian Opposition forces.” This conclusion jives with published assessments by the Financial Times and the Economist.

See Wikipedia,“ Russia`s Intervention in Syria`s Civil War”, consulted on 11/1/2025.

12. Turkey supported the Syrian Revolution from its very beginning. However, by 2017 it reached the conclusion that its policies have not succeed. Henceforth, its priorities in Syria were reordered to two objectives: the return of the Syrian refugees and the threat of the Kurdish Qasad led by thje PKK on its Southern border. The price for Turkish actions in this regard, led Turkey to withhold support for keeping Eastern Aleppo in the rebels hands. Thousands of Syrians were killed in the Aleppo battle.

13. Mr. K. Saqre the chief of the press and information in the Presidential palace was interviewed by Hussein al Shaikh on Alarabiah on 3 rd December 2025. He revealed that the escape- party included Bashar Assad, his two sons, his two finance advisors, the Defence Minister and the Army Chief of Staff.

14. Mrs. Manal J. Assad, the wife of Maher Assad appeared on the social net wrapped up with the revolution flag and calling Bashar a traitor of family and country. Her husband, Maher, like his brother, ran away illicitly to Lebanon.

See Omar Aziz, «How Obama Has Betrayed the Syrian People » Aljazeera, 22 August, President Obama, after meeting a delegation of Syrian rebels, demurred that farmers, professors and pharmacists could not lead a revolution.

15. The Syrian Center for Human Rights in Coventry, England.

16. al Arabiah on 3/1/2025, and General Ahmad Rahal on YouTub on the same date.

17. For a detailed discussion of these meetings and the four Arab demands, see Michael Sakbani, “Syria Between the Naïve Arab Leaders and its Failed oppositions”, in michaek.sakbani@blogspot.com, May 2023.

18. Michael Sakbani, “Building a Democratic State for a Modern Syria” in michael.sakbani.blogspot.com, forthcoming in January 20, 2025. This paper is part two of this series.

19. Stock prices of construction companies rose sharply on the Istanbul stock market with Syria`s revolution victory.

20. If the electoral districts were one for every 90 thousand residents, the size of the House will be 300 representatives for a population of about 27 million.

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the Blog Papers of Dr. Michael Sakbani; Economics, Finance and Politics

Brill and Kodus disseminates Dr, Sakbani`s papers to all research institutions in the World.

Dr. Sakbani won numerous prizes and awards for his intellectual distinction.

The Triumph of a People; Syria Rises from the Ashes of a Barbaric Dictatorship

Dr. Michael Sakbani

Part one: the Revolution*

A rotten system

The revolution of the poor and oppressed.

A tsunami soon called the “Arab Spring” was upon the whole area.

This is when the sectarian regime of Nouri al Maliki in Iraq, the regime itself and the Islamists Shiite government in Iran coordinated the creation of ISIS (Sakbani, 2011)^[8].

Astana; Sochi and the change in Turkey`s policies

Preparing the assault

The temporary government in Damascus

This author thinks that using an amended version of the 1950 constitution can serve as an interim constitution while the new constitution is still in process.

Luckily, the date of the event, 9 th of January, was postponed.

The irony is that the Arab Countries have collectively, except Qatar, tried to normalize with As

How ironic it is that until the 27^th of November, the West, Russia, most Arabs states and Israel were trying to rehabilitate Assad. What a change has the revolutionaries effected!

Syria, Turkey and President Erdogan

Setting up a Democratic civil state; Constitutional Suggestions

In what follows, the author presents his own suggestions for some major features of a new Constitution.

The Constitution should enshrine the protection of human rights and liberties as spelled out by the UN charter and declaration as the founding principles of the land.

Syria should be a democratic, civil state with peaceful transfer of power and alteration of governance by the free will of the people as expressed in free and transparent elections.

There should be a bi-chamber parliament: a house of representatives (HR) elected by election-districts of about 90,000 inhabitants on the principle of one man/woman-one vote (note on population)^[20]. The suggested term is 4 years for the House with term limit of four times. The Senate will be elected by provinces (muhafazats) for a six -year term. Roughly one third of the Senate is elected every 2 years and the term limits of three times is suggested. Each province is suggested to have 5 Senators with the cities of Aleppo and Damascus, given their size and importance, having 5 additional city Senators. This is a total of 80 Senators.