the Blog Papers of Dr. Michael Sakbani; Economics, Finance and Politics

Michael Sakbani, Ph.D., is a former professor of Economics and Finance at the Geneva campus of Webster and Thunderbird. He is a senior international consultant to the UN system, European Union and Swiss banks. His career began at the State university of NY at Stoney Brook, then the Federal Reserve Bank of New York followed by UNCTAD where he was Director of the divisions of Economic Cooperation, Poverty Alleviation, and Special Programs. Now, Michael has published over 140 professional papers.

Tuesday, October 01, 2024

Nasreullah; the Fall of a Terrorist Who Has Lost His Raisonne D`etre

 

  
the Blog Papers of Dr. Michael Sakbani; Economics, Finance and Politics

Michael Sakbani, Ph.D., is a former professor of Economics and Finance at the Geneva campuses of Webster and Thunderbird. He is a senior international consultant to the UN system, European Union and Swiss banks. His career began at the State university of NY at Stoney Brook, then the Federal Reserve Bank of New York followed by UNCTAD where he was Director of the divisions of Economic Cooperation, Poverty Alleviation, and Special Programs. Dr. Sakbani has published over 150 professional papers and coauthored 6 books.

The « inteligent economist » elected michaelsakbani.blogspot.com in 2020, 2021,2023 as one of the top 100 blogs in the world.

Brill and kudos distributes his work to research institutions all over the world.

Dr. Sakbani has won numerous awards and citations for his intellectual distinction.

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 Nassrallah; The Fall of a Terrorist Who Lost His Raisonne d`Etre

                                 By 

         Dr. Michael Sakbani

 

The news from the chaotic Mideast is finally revealing that Iran might be forced to decide to be a state rather than an Islamic fundamentalist spearhead. Throughout the Gaza war, Iran has been clear about not wanting to get into a war with Israel, knowing that the latter will be significantly supported by the US. Moreover, Hizbullah led by the late Hasan Nasrallah, has followed closely its Iranian masters by token engagement only.

 The Islamic Republic has been warned that the US and Israel are so fed up with its destablization policies, that they might inverse the regime by even military means. The threat to the regime is the supreme danger for whose avoidance Iran would do anything, including abandoning its devoted allies in the so called ”  axis-of- resistance”. Khomaini did exactly that in his war with Iraq, as he advocated working with the lesser of two evils. The US communicated to the regime, that if it pulls out of supporting its proxies in Iraq, Syria, Gaza, Yemen, and Lebanon, the US would be willing to give up the policy of strangulating the regime, reducing the sanctions, and even, accepting Iran`s nuclear ambitions under guided conditions. To the Iranian regime, this is a supreme Iranian national interest, against which everything is secondary. As it did after the assassination of Qasem Sulaymani, and the assassination of its military chief in Syria, it choreographed its response and turned over the page. 

In his address to the UNGA, the new Iranian President, called the Americans Iran`s brothers, and signaled that Iran is ready to negotiate on all topics. Furthermore, Jawad Zariff, the Iranian VP. said in his interview on CNN with Christian Amanpour on the 25 of September, that Iran does not dictate the response and actions of groups outside its territory; it is up to Hizbullah, he said, to respond to Israeli actions.  In sum, Iran would abandon its proxies if the US were willing to negotiate. The Biden administration is likely willing to go back to Obama’s line of accepting Iran as a regional power but without its Islamist garb.  This naturally serves the interest of the US by keeping the Gulf States under Iranian military threat and thus, in need for US protection and dominance. 

 

The question arises, what has Hizbullah done to support Gaza?

In its sporadic bombardment of Northern Israel, it has killed 44 people. Twelve of these people are Arab Druz from the occupied Golan Heights. In addition, in Galili, it has killed six Palestinians. That means its total damage to Israel is 24 Israelis and foreigners killed by its bombardment. Israel meanwhile has inflicted on Lebanon 1600 deaths. This lopsided account shows that Hizbullah contribution to the Palestinian cause is so modest that it amounts to basically propagandistic.

 

In the circumstances of Lebanon, Hizbullah was not permitted by Iran to respond to the Israeli provocations and thus was kept in a state of no war and no peace. The undecided Hizbullah was also gravely infiltrated by foreign agents, including compromised Iranian revolutionary guard individuals who were Israeli spies. These spies penetrated the entire echelons of Hizballah’s leadership. The names, the whereabouts, the address, and even the movements of its entire leadership were known to Western and Israeli Intelligence Services.  Liquidating Hasan Nasrallah and the entire top echelons of leadership was a simple arial bombardment task entrusted to the capable Israeli air force using 82 US 1-ton bombs to level a dozen of building in Beirut. 

Hizbullah defeat started by the pagers and walkie talkies explosions injuring several thousand militia members, followed by eliminating the top commanders and culminated by killing Nasrullah and his successor.  

The question now is what will become of Hizbullah. Will it try to reconstitute itself as a military body or will it accept the fact that this is no longer possible and that its safety and interests will be best served as a political party under the agies of the Lebanese State.

 The latter choice is optimistic. In this optimistic scenario, the new leader of Hizbullah, will probably accept the status of a Lebanese political party without arms, and will withdraw his mercenaries from Syria, leaving Bashar Assad to face his destiny at the hands of his long-oppressed people. Israel will cash its gains by a generalized peace agreement recognizing its existence by all the Arab countries, according to the 2003 Arab peace initiative. That gives it the chance to dominate its neighbors economically and commercially. The Palestinians will have self- determination in a rump disarmed state of their own. The long-suffering people of the Mid-East will for the first time have regimes largely chosen by the people and not imposed by the exigencies of the struggle with Israel. In sum, the game of militarists who can only suppress their own people and ruin their states, and Israel who in the name of security invades and bombs all its neighbors would be over. The Mid-East is going to be in a phase of reconstruction, physically, institutionally, and politically and perhaps, I hope, culturally.  

 

However, this optimistic scenario rests on four assumptions: 1. Israel will be led by a new governing class whose vision is not national-religious Zionism;  2. that the US will be led not by a Zionist President. 3. that the new leadership in Iran accept to cast off its fundamentalist advocacy and 4. the Lebanese politicians recover their Lebanese agency and set up a representative Government.

 

Coming down from this euphoric scenario, we face an Israel whose entire existence has been marked by ignoring international law and getting away with aggression and settlement colonialism. Can Israel cast off this Zionist exceptionalism? This is a monumental task that only the Israeli people can do. Israelis think of most Palestinians as murderous terrorists, and they know very little about their Arab neighbors. They receive in their schools a fabricated story about their biblical rights and messianic entitlements. If one listens to Mr. Netanyahu and most other politicians, whose parents came from various far away countries, they claim against all facts that they have been in Palestine for 3000 years!!!. The messianic extremists, believe that God has given them the land as his “chosen people” !!!!!. This sociological political scene pregnant with illusions, means that Israel must be forced to accept Palestinian rights by withholding Western unconditional support. Only the US can do that if it really uses its leverage by action and not by words. 

On the other hand, the Palestinians have to accept that having 23.7 % of their historical land is better than the perpetual subjugation and dehumanization they live with; history, unfortunately, is seldom fare. On the other hand, for the Arab states surrounding Israel, the conflict has exacted a heavy price in development and political governance that is senseless to keep paying. 

Finally, will the Lebanese politicians associated with Hizbullah finally get liberated from the blind and irrational loyalty to Iran which Nasrallah had. Will they recover their Lebanese agency, and understand that it is foreign ideologies and not any communal conflict that separate them from their neighbors? 

 

A new Middle East has to reinvent itself in so many ways. It has to liberate itself from illusions, from 800 years of cultural stagnation, from Iranian lies and pretensions and  from dictators like Assad and Sisi and from absolute tribal chiefs with flags, to enter a new era where its people have freedom, economic prosperity and political sovereignty.

 




 

posted by Dr. Michael Sakbani | 1:27 AM | 0 comments