Getting Peace in Time of Peril

    Getting Peace in Time of Peril; An Essay

                       by

         Dr. Michael Sakbani 

 

In the Figaro last week Henri Guiano, a principal national security adviser to former President Sarkozy, Dr. Henry Kissinger three weeks ago, Thomas Friedman of the New York Times2 weeks ago and the Editorial Page of the NYT this week, all were warning the West, led by the US, of sleepwalking into global nuclear conflict with the Russian Federation.  Just like WW 1 and II,  a priori positions of states are leading them to a global conflict that no one wants or can afford.

In March 2020, this author wrote on these pages, a proposal plan to end the war in Ukraine. The compromises outlined in this proposal are still valid one hundred  days after the start of this war.

Prior to this war launched by Russia against Ukraine, President Putin had been since 2008 bringing up the security concerns of Russia of advancing NATO to Russia`s borders. The US, leading the West, had ignored and sometimes even dismissed these concerns. In a monumental shortsightedness, NATO in Bucharest in 2008 expressed its support and even its implicit approval regarding joining NATO by Ukraine and Georgia. This was also in violation of repeated promises to the contrary by the leaders of the West.

Since 2014, President Putin has been intervening militarily in Ukraine, and in Syria and interfering in the domestic affairs of the West and associating his opponents outside Russia. The West did not react to these subversive activities and did not try to comprehend his motives. Putin finally thought that he can get away with invading Ukraine and wrongly imagined that it will be like Syria, where nobody did anything about his atrocities there.

The Russian  invasion of 24 February 2022 of a peaceful neighbor was surely a catastrophe to the world in food supplies and energy prices and an open aggression on international peace and security. Unexpectedly, this wanton act of aggression unified the West, gave a "raison d `etre" to NATO  and opened the path to a conflict with no apparent end in sight.

President Biden policy has been  to lead the West into a coalition against Putin`s aggression through arming Ukraine at a scale never seen before, but with restrictions that blurs the strategic goal. The idea behind that is that frustrating Putin`s designs by making it impossible for him to achieve his military goals, will lead to peace, it will force him to negotiations. The problem in this approach is that it has no timeline and has global externalities. The war has entered into a protracted phase where Russia and Ukraine are suffering gravely, the world beyond them is facing food shortages in most countries and sky--high energy cost and the rule based international system is breached. In democracies, these consequences have dramatic impacts on elected officials, as all indications point out in the upcoming US ‘elections. Peoples` patience with wars of principle is limited and surely perishable.   

So what can be done to stop this war now ?

The first thing is for the West led by the US not to  leave the matter of peace to Putin and Zelensky. The global externalities of the war render the international community an involved and concerned party. The sensible thing is to put forward proposals that give something to both sides.

 In the matter of NATO membership, Ukraine already accepts not to join immediately. But this requires security guarantees for Ukraine under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. So, Russia has to endorse such guarantees.

In the matter of Crimea, the issue should be taken off the table and both parties should accept the results of a future referendum under the UN auspices, of the people of Crimea as to which political arrangement they choose.

On the matter of the Donbas region, again, the inhabitants`will, expressed in a free referendum, should be honored. Ukraine should offer a binational confederation for this region with linguistic independence as a quid pro quo for preserving its territorial sovereignty.

Finally, on the matter of Gas and oil reserves off the coast of the Black Sea, a just formula of sharing these can be devised.

The above means taken matters in hand by President Biden and other Western leaders in bringing both sides to the negotiation table on the basis of such proposals.

(Geneva 4/6/2022)