Mr. Erdogan and the Turkish Malaise
Erdogan and the Turkish Malaise
By
Dr. Michael Sakbani
The riots that have gripped Turkey in the past 10 days were
a great surprise to a lot of people inside and outside the country. That the
formidable Prime Minister Receb Tayeb Erdogan be contested by rioters over a controversy
about a building site in Taksim Square, followed by demonstrations in 49
Turkish localities was at first instance incomprehensible. However, those who
follow the general mood in Turkey could discern frustrations with the
Government and the increasing authoritarianism of Mr. Erdogan building up over
time. This frustration reflects in part the despair of a large segment of the
Turkish society that there is no alternative to the Prime Minister among the
parliamentary opposition of the political establishment and a suspicion, no
matter how unfounded, that Mr. Erdogan is surreptitiously planning to convert the Turkish state into an
Islamic Khilafet.
There has been no leader since Mustafa Kemal that has marked
Turkey as has Mr. Erdogan. His achievements in the economic era are, despite
their vulnerability, really impressive[1].
Turkey has averaged a rate of growth of more than 6 % from 2002 to 2008. It went
negative in 2009 but recovered in 2010, to 2012 to its previous average pace
despite the crisis in Europe, its biggest trading partner. The financial sector
withstood quite well the financial crisis of 2008. Mr. Erdogan quadrupled Turkish
exports since 2002 to reach $154 billion by 2012. Turkey’s exports went to a
much wider group of importers than before. During the past 12 years, the
Turkish per capita income has doubled in real terms to $15,000[2].
The Turkish new lira stabilized and there has been considerable improvement in
health, housing and infrastructure. He has launched a successful social anti-thesis
to Ataturk’s secular- Western thesis and brought to power and wealth the
Anatolian Bourgeoisie who was trapped in the contempt and dismissal of the
Ataturk elite establishment. He launched a series of reforms in the
institutions of the state and its legal system, which won the nod of the
Europeans to start EU membership talks. Mr. Erdogan is the only political
leader who clipped the hidden state in Turkey and stopped the meddling of the
Generals in Turkish politics. Lately, he began the long-delayed dialogue with
the Kurdish nationalists. And above all, he mapped out a vision for Turkey that
has begun to transform its face. In foreign policy, he gained the amity of all
his neighbors after decades of estranged coexistence.
But Mr. Erdogan is not the first leader who fell victim to
his success and consolidation of power. Absolute power might not have corrupted
him absolutely, but nearly blinded him absolutely. The moderate and pragmatic
Islamist of the early years could not shed the social conservatism of his
background and ideology and instead of evolving with the Turkish society he
helped to advance, he got stock in hubris and received values. As he accumulated
successes and sealed the chances of political opponents, he abandoned
skepticism and gave in to his authoritarian impulses. Silly things not
befitting a big man started to mark his public perception: banning alcohol in
universities, restricting the hours of alcohol sales when Turkey has no
drinking problem, masking kisses and amorous gestures on media and dragging the
Turkish urban population into the shade of his own piety. All of this creeping
Islamization amounted to intolerance regarding the views and values of the
others and registered a great dissonance with liberal democracy.
As Mr. Erdogan, got
more self-assured, his very good idea of changing the Constitution written in
1982 by the Generals, got mixed up with his Putin’s game: changing the
Constitution to establish a Presidential system for his next term.
More ominously, in the last few years, he has brooked no
tolerance with his critics and threw into jail eight hundred prisoners of pen
and thought. When the riots erupted, instead of reaching out to the youthful
protesters, he treated them as political opponents, hooligans, and alcoholics, a
tune reminiscent of Kaddafi and other despots. This was harder to condone than
even the police brutality in Taksim square. It is evident that Erdogan began to
confound Democratic legitimacy with majority authority and rides his three
Democratic election victories over a shallow and ineffectual opposition into
the singular verity of his vision. Liberal democracy cannot function if
minority interests and views are not incorporated into the majority decision
making and public opinion is not headed and communicated with by the governing
party.
Adding to all these domestic problems, his foreign policy
fired back. His involvement in the Syrian civil war damaged his achievements
even though for no moral or political fault of his own. And that demonstrated
the danger of operating in a bubble and only seeing what he wants.
Finally,
recently, many newspaper stories have floated about the corruption in his political
circle, including his own son, Bilal. Mr. Erdogan has done nothing to pursue
and investigate these reports. In fact, he has gone on a campaign of suppressing
Press freedom which increases his discredit.
The present troubles have shown some sunlight between Mr.
Erdogan and some leaders in his party, eg., the mayor of Istanbul. Whether they
can replace him as a party leader remains an open question. But there is little
doubt in the views of many observers that his project of Presidential executive
is dead. If that is the case, he might be serving his last governmental term.
In his book on his years in the White-House, Henry Kissinger
recommended to all politicians to exit from the scene to rebuild their depleted
political and intellectual capital. Kissinger thought of one or two four year
terms. Mr. Erdogan has governed for 11 years. It is time for him to hand the wheel
of direction to somebody else. If he does, his place in Turkish history will be
great and Turkey will be spared an unnecessary crisis.
Geneva, 10/6/13.
[1] Turkey does not have the typical debt problem of the
EU members. Its debt to GDP ratio is less than 40 percent and its public
deficit is around 2. 6 percent of the GDP. This is better than all EU members.
However, Turkey runs a deficit in its current account of $ 65 billion. Thus, it
needs to continue financing that deficit by foreign capital inflows and
borrowing from the financial markets. Such capital inflows would be stable if
they were in the form of foreign direct investment. Today, a huge chunk of
capital inflows is Arab investments many of which are hot money investments.
Should the current troubles of Mr. Erdogan continue, these inflows would
reverse themselves and the country might face a currency crisis followed by a
banking crisis. Moreover, Mr. Erdogan’s gigantic
future projects would entail significant future increases in foreign
indebtedness as he has already sold most of the state owned assets.
[2] All the statistics are from CIA, fact book, turkey,
consulted on 9/6/1913.