Prleliminary ouline
of a ukraine solution
By
Dr. michael Sakbani
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The problem of Ukraine is
complex for both Putin and the Ukrainians. Remember that Poland and Ukraine
were the only two countries in Europe that gained territory after WWII.
Poland took a part of Germany and Ukraine a part of old Russia. Khrushchev,
whose mother was Ukrainian and was born there, also gave Ukraine the Black sea
coast. Of course, he did not anticipate the dissolution of the Soviet Union. When the SU collapsed, Ukraine
ended up with a handsome territory. But in addition, it inherited 10 million
Russians.Tthese Russians live mostly in the Donbas region. Note here that
Kharkiv is 75% Russian and yet it has not fallen to Putin. Crimea is a different
story. Uptill 1873. it was an Ottoman province with a majority Tatar
population. Russians thereafter started, as usual, to come there and claim overlordship. In 2014, Russians accounted for 49 % of the population. Ukrainians were only 20
% and 30% were Tatars. The Tatars were rubbed off their land by giving it to the Russian immigrants, and half
of them were forced out of Crimea. In other words, Crimea is
historically a Tatar land. Wihout Crimea, the Russian
fleet has no warm water harbor. More critically,Ukraine with Crimea a has a Continental
shelf water with a great amount of Gas. The gas is so important that i is estimated at 2 trillion cubic meters. t
rivals Russia's own gas. Putin will never give it up if he is not defeated. So, it is obvious that it is
not only a question of NATO, although it is, but equally one of the
gas reserves and additionally, fleet problem. Now add to all of that the
military probleme of defending Russia and Bilaruouss if you have Putin`s
mentality which becomes undefensible. Without Ukraine, it is very difficult to defend Russia and
Belarus becomes a cutoff saliant. For Nato, if Ukraine is gone, the only passage to the Baltic states would be a 30 km wide passage north of
Poland. I think Putin should be given a
promise about NATO. Ukraine can join the EU but not NATO. On Crimea the gas spoils have to be divided. In return, Ukraine would reopen the water supply
to Crimea. and the shelf gas should be divided. Finally, as to the Dombas,
they should be given autonomy within Ukraine. that is my suggestion The solution is obvious. But
like in the Palestinian-Israeli issue, there is no statesmanship,
especially by Biden. to paint Putin as the villain without understanding
where he comes from and what has the west promised, but never delivered is
sterile and non-imaginative. The West is now paying for its
silence on what Putin did in Syria and was allowed to go unscathed. Syria was
the other and Putin killed hundreds of thousands without a hoot of protest. what a double standard. .
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posted by Dr. Michael Sakbani | 2:15 AM
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